For varying reasons, I've missed most of the grand slam tennis this year. Whether it was not having a TV, not being by a TV or life being too stressful for me to pay attention to a TV, I never really got to lock in on any of the first three slams for the full fortnight. In fact, I haven't really latched on at all until at least the first weekend, sometimes not even until the second week. The only full match I saw at the French was the final and I didn't watch a second of Wimbledon - not even round of 16 Monday, my favorite day of the year for tennis. I've tried to pay a bit of attention during the hard court season - yes, I know Mardy Fish is balling out of control right now - and I like to think I still have a decent bit of knowledge of how these things work.
I'm not going to bother with seeds and that's probably best for the both of us: tennis seeding and bracketing would probably be the biggest inanity in sports if not for a little thing called the Bowl Championship Series. I'm just gonna go round by round, starting with the third round (the round of 32, otherwise known as the first round where seeds can meet/the first round where you have mostly solid matchups.) These will almost assuredly be terrible. I have no idea what's going on. I'm trying to guess what will happen in the season finale while having only watched a YouTube recap video of the season itself. But hey, maybe Veena Sud will be directing:
Round of 32: Djokovic over Dodig, Gasquet over Dogloplov, Berdych over Tipsarevic, Monfils over Malisse, Federer over Tomic, Kohlschreiber over Haas, Tsonga over Nieminen, de Bakker over Hanescu, Isner over Soderling, Del Potro over Simon, Wawrinka over Tursunov, Murray over Lopez, Ferrer over Rochus, Roddick over Almagro, Gulbis over Melzer, Nadal over Nalbandian
Nothing too special here. Gasquet/Dogloplov could be fun. I like both players and Richie has a flair for the dramatic at slams. Berdych/Tipsy might be entertaining if the good Tipsy turns up. Federer/Tomic would be real interesting - young lion vs old. I think the German vets each take out their seeds (Stepanek and Troicki, respectively) but the younger has a bit more left at this stage of the game.
de Bakker over Fish is a shot-in-the-dark and more of a signal that I don't buy the Fish hype at all. Djokovic's crash out to Federer in the semis of the French that nobody saw coming was a lesson that no matter how dominant you are on tour, slams are different animals when that target's on your back. Mardy's been brilliant this summer, but how much gas does he have left in the tank after going deep in four tournaments over the past six weeks? Besides, his draws in each tourney but his latest one in Cincinnati were soft and while he was especially masterful in the Masters with the Davydenko domination and then straight setting Gasquet and Nadal back to back before taking Murray deep in to a second set tiebreak before succumbing in the semis, he got to the finals last year and couldn't get past the fourth in last year's U.S. Open. Even if my hail mary doesn't come through, I think Tsonga will in that round this year.
Anyhow, a quick note about Nieminen is that I have him putting a cherry on top of Fernando Verdasco's shockingly disappointing year in round 1. I'll grab Isner in the mild upset of Soderling - the speed of the court and the roar of the home crowd will make the difference there. Is it me or do Murray and Lopez play every slam? Roddick might be tested by Almagro but the Spaniard never seems to hit his potential against superior competition. It's an "on" tournament for Gulbis - one of the few people to beat Fish this summer (final of the Famer's Classic) - as he takes down mercurial Youzhny in round 1 before taking out the lefty Austrian who's better suited to clay. Nalbandian wins a potentially intriguing round 2 senior citizen battle with Ivan Ljubicic before falling to Nadal. I wouldn't call the upset out of play, just unlikely.
Round of 16: Djokovic over Gasquet, Berdych over Monfils, Federer over Kohlschreiber, Tsonga over de Bakker, Del Potro over Isner, Murray over Wawrinka, Roddick over Ferrer, Nadal over Gulbis
Richie could make that REALLY fun, but as usual, he most likely will not. Berdych/Monfils has match of the round potential. Kohlschreiber never troubles Fed. Tsonga overpowers de Bakker. Del Potro/Isner would have by far the most electric atmosphere of the round and could create a classic if they bombed away deep in to the night. I think the Argentine's got a bit more of an all around arsenal, though. Murray and Wawrinka had a classic of their own at Wimbledon a couple years ago but I don't think this one's as tight. Ferrer has disappointed at this event since his enthralling late night win over Nadal and subsequent semifinal run in 07. I only really have him here because of a pathetically easy first week draw (what's left of James Blake's career or a qualifier in round 2 and Florian Mayer is the possible seed in round 3) and Roddick should handle him with ease. An interesting note is that Andy usually runs in to fellow Americans at these things, particularly this one, and he could meet Jack Sock, the reigning U.S. Open juniors champion, in round 2. Who wouldn't love to see that one? Our generation's American star (keep your snarky comments to yourself) against the next generation's. I suppose Gulbis could stun Nadal if Rafa's knees flare up but that seems heavily unlikely.
Quarterfinals: Djokovic over Berdych, Federer over Tsonga, Del Potro over Murray, Nadal over Roddick
Berdych retired against Nole in Cincinnati and is 1-7 against him lifetime. Speaking of poor head to head records, that's Federer against Tsonga this summer, but Roger never lets anyone keep him down for too long unless he's named "Rafa." Moreover, he tends to thrive when everyone gives up on him, which seems to be occurring yet again and would seem to be likely should this matchup commence. As for DelPo/Murray, the Scot is becoming renowned for his Flushing Meadow meltdowns since his 08 final appearance. This matchup and Del Potro's pounding forehand provides the chance for another. And of course Nadal/Roddick would be the talk of America for the day, we all know it wouldn't be competitive. Unless Rafa's knees weren't right...
Semifinals: Federer over Djokovic, Del Potro over Nadal
Cincinnati was a harbinger for Djokovic. This run he's been on has taxed him physically, mentally, and emotionally. One of the few matches I've been able to catch this summer was his with Monfils in that tournament and he was treating it like it was a slam final. Every match is a war for him at this point just because of how much he's being gunned for and what this year has evolved in to. He already flamed out to Federer in the French semi and I'm not sure he'll fare much better on a considerably faster service where Federer's superior serve will be a bigger factor. Remember, Roger collapsed to lose their semifinal last year and while he's been melting down routinely this year, I don't think he loses it against Nole if he has it again this year. And then we saw Del Potro/Nadal in the semis here two years ago and it wasn't pretty. Of course the Argentine isn't playing nearly as well but if he gets to this stage of the tournament, his forehand will be popping and if that's the case, Nadal can't beat him on this surface. He's perhaps the one player on tour Nadal simply cannot grind down and Rafa's topspin won't be able to save him on concrete.
Final: Federer over Del Potro
Just when you count him out......
But isn't it this way with all of the all time greats? Sampras had the 02 U.S. Open. Ali had the Rumble in the Jungle. Tiger will have the 2012 Masters. Whenever people start telling them that they're not great anymore, that they're starting to lose it and they can't get it back, that they have no chance against the younger, up-and-coming competition, they use this as motivation to pull out whatever pieces of greatness they have left inside them. Greg Rusedski said that Sampras was, "a step and a half slower" after their third round U.S. Open match in 02 and predicted he would lose next round (or so Wiki claims.) Sampras turned around and took out the 3rd (Haas), 11th (Roddick), 24th (Sjeng Schalken) and 6th (Andre Agassi) seeds to win the tournament. Not sure if any of Fed's opposition will give him bulletin board material but he's sure to get easy motivation from all the people who recall his collapse in the 09 version of this match to give the Argentine what will probably forever be known as the best win of his career. No matter how it went down, this would be a spectacularly fascinating final.
Though to be fair to the men's game, you could say that about any one of a number of potential finals. It's really anyone's slam at the top. And unlike the women, it's all quality and class.
Showing posts with label u.s. open. Show all posts
Showing posts with label u.s. open. Show all posts
Monday, August 29, 2011
2011 U.S. Open Predictions - Women
Above are my poor credentials and even poorer men's picks. Now to the women.
I took a shot at the women's game to close out the above post and for good reason. It sucks. No one has mental strength. No one can hit the ball accurately more often than not. Almost anyone in the draw, save for the qualifiers and/or greenhorns, can make a run in to the second week. How much parity is there? Here's a list of seeded players I have out in round 1: Jarmila Gaidosova (29), Andrea Petkovic (10), Kaia Kanepi (31), Shahar Peer (23), Yanina Wickmayer (20), Shuai Peng (13), Flavia Pennetta (26) and Anabel Medina Garrigues (30.) Eight of thirty two seeds, exactly one quarter of the seeded players out in the first round (and three in the top 20.) We'll see if we come anywhere close to that:
Round of 32: Wozniacki over Benesova, Kuznetsova over Hantuchova, Zheng over Cornet, Li over Date Krumm, Serena over Azarenka, Ivanovic over Mirza, Pavlyuchenkova over Jankovic, Erakovic over Martinez-Sanchez, Safarova over Kvitova, Cirstea over Radwanska, Goerges over Razzano, Sharapova over Oudin, Kirilenko over Bartoli, Stosur over Petrova, Venus over Cibulkova, Robson over Zvonareva
Wozniacki gets the first week ease she needs with Vesnina in round 2 in a match that's appointment television for anyone attracted to women before Benesova in the third. Kuznetsova/Hantuchova's an interesting matchup but I'll go with the one who's won this whole thing before. Chinese countrywomen Zheng and Li Na set up the finals of an Asian battle royal of sorts, with Li taking down Japanese veteran Kimiko Date Krumm who I've got beating Thailand's Tamarine Tanasugarn in round 2.
What else is there to say for Serena/Azarenka? It makes Steelers/Ravens look like a competitive rivalry. What an awful draw for Victoria. When she inevitably goes out, she should spend a healthy amount of her press conference ripping the directors for seeding Serena 28th. Would it come off as sour grapes? Absolutely, especially considering the Belarusian is considered one of the more immature players on tour and frequently has whiny outbursts on court, but it would be more than a fair gripe. There's just no excuse to seed her that low when she's in this kind of form and the talent pool at the top of the women's game is so thin. I mean, Dominika Cibulkova is the 14th seed. What kind of odds do you think the tiny Slovakian would be getting on a fast hard court in New York City against an American who is the biggest, most powerful force to ever play women's tennis? How is it logical that she's 14th and Serena, winner of both the Bank of the West Classic in LA and the Toronto Masters this summer, is 28th?
I have Mirza upsetting Peer to soften up Ivanovic's road. I couldn't be more happy for Ana that she's climbed back in to the top 20. She's worked so hard to rebuild her career since she wilted in the lights of the paparazzi after her bombastic 2007 French Open victory. She fell completely off the map, getting the yips with her serve on many occasions but now she's putting together one solid tournament after another, save a second round slip to Petrova in Cincinnati. I'm not sure she's totally conquered the demons but she's made significant progress, as evidenced by her being able to take Vera Zvonareva to the wire a couple of weeks ago.
I think Pavlyuchenko and Jankovic's careers are going different directions and that match will showcase it. Erakovic is my random upset pick - she stuns Schiavone in round 2 because I'd fancy my chances against Schiavone on a fast court and I can't remember the last time I picked up a tennis racket. Safarova's like Pavlyuchenkova in that I've liked her for a while and Kvitova's due for an early slam exit. Radwanska is, too and Cirstea's a sleeper who takes out 09 semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer in round 1. Goerges is a cute young Brit I like who beat Jankovic and pushed Serena in Toronto and Razzano takes out Peng. The clock will strike midnight on Oudin this time. Kirilenko shockingly beats Bartoli with some ease, indicating she may be ready to make noise. Stosur handles Petrova and my Serena/Cibulkova point from above goes for Venus as well.
And then my shocker of the tournament. Laura Robson is just 17 but she's being hyped as one of the best British women's tennis players in generations. She's obviously got the talent being on the main tour at this young age and she's been pro for a couple years now. This is a pure shot in the dark but you just never know with Zvonareva and for some weird reason, I think she's in line for a major choke, even by her standards. Some shocking things are going to happen in this draw - parity's the name of the game right now on the WTA. This will be way wrong but what's right probably won't be all that predictable anyways.
Round of 16: Wozniacki over Kuznetsova, Li over Zheng, Serena over Ivanovic, Pavlyuchenkova over Erakovic, Safarova over Cirstea, Sharapova over Goerges, Kirilenko over Stosur, Venus over Robson
Could be a coming of age victory for Caroline if she can pull it off. I think she does, but moreso because Kuznetsova's starting to fade and I think she breaks down in a third set here. Li bests Zheng in the all-Chinese affair. Ivanovic's still far too fragile to take down Serena. Pavluychenkova and Safarova take advantage of broken brackets while Sharapova makes Goerges look overmatched in what could be another easy-on-the-eyes affair. Speaking easy-on-the-eyes, Kirilenko keeps her roll going as she shocks Stosur, who has been poor at slams and streaky overall this year. Venus can name her score against Robson.
Quarterfinals: Li over Wozniacki, Serena over Pavlyuchenkova, Sharapova over Safarova, Kirilenko over Venus
I'd LOVE to take Caroline here...but I can't. She's 0/2 against Li in the second week of hard court slams, although both losses were at the Australian (this year's semis, last year's quarters.) Still, I think Li's got a mental edge on her - which means everything in women's tennis. Serena and Sharapova breeze...but Venus doesn't as Kirilenko continues her fantastic run by giving me my new upset of the tournament. Lots of girls, many of them at least somewhat unexpected, have been having breakthrough runs this deep in slams over the past year or two. Yeah, most of them aren't beating a Williams sister en route but I think Kirilenko's next in line. She'll get hot after she beats Bartoli. Gut (and erotic) feeling.
Semifinals: Serena over Li, Sharapova over Kirilenko
Serena wins in a war as Li is a terrific player punching at her weight. Sharapova wins in a rout as Kirilenko is a streaky one punching above her's.
Final: Sharapova over Serena
...and that's what makes the difference in the final. Sharapova pulls off the mild upset in a classic three setter. I think she really cranks up her form in this tournament aided by a soft draw with no top 15 seed in my projected path for her. Serena, meanwhile, has to deal with Azarenka in round 3, Ivanovic in round 4 and then Li in the semis. She runs out of gas and breaks down enough for Maria to get her second U.S. Open.
I took a shot at the women's game to close out the above post and for good reason. It sucks. No one has mental strength. No one can hit the ball accurately more often than not. Almost anyone in the draw, save for the qualifiers and/or greenhorns, can make a run in to the second week. How much parity is there? Here's a list of seeded players I have out in round 1: Jarmila Gaidosova (29), Andrea Petkovic (10), Kaia Kanepi (31), Shahar Peer (23), Yanina Wickmayer (20), Shuai Peng (13), Flavia Pennetta (26) and Anabel Medina Garrigues (30.) Eight of thirty two seeds, exactly one quarter of the seeded players out in the first round (and three in the top 20.) We'll see if we come anywhere close to that:
Round of 32: Wozniacki over Benesova, Kuznetsova over Hantuchova, Zheng over Cornet, Li over Date Krumm, Serena over Azarenka, Ivanovic over Mirza, Pavlyuchenkova over Jankovic, Erakovic over Martinez-Sanchez, Safarova over Kvitova, Cirstea over Radwanska, Goerges over Razzano, Sharapova over Oudin, Kirilenko over Bartoli, Stosur over Petrova, Venus over Cibulkova, Robson over Zvonareva
Wozniacki gets the first week ease she needs with Vesnina in round 2 in a match that's appointment television for anyone attracted to women before Benesova in the third. Kuznetsova/Hantuchova's an interesting matchup but I'll go with the one who's won this whole thing before. Chinese countrywomen Zheng and Li Na set up the finals of an Asian battle royal of sorts, with Li taking down Japanese veteran Kimiko Date Krumm who I've got beating Thailand's Tamarine Tanasugarn in round 2.
What else is there to say for Serena/Azarenka? It makes Steelers/Ravens look like a competitive rivalry. What an awful draw for Victoria. When she inevitably goes out, she should spend a healthy amount of her press conference ripping the directors for seeding Serena 28th. Would it come off as sour grapes? Absolutely, especially considering the Belarusian is considered one of the more immature players on tour and frequently has whiny outbursts on court, but it would be more than a fair gripe. There's just no excuse to seed her that low when she's in this kind of form and the talent pool at the top of the women's game is so thin. I mean, Dominika Cibulkova is the 14th seed. What kind of odds do you think the tiny Slovakian would be getting on a fast hard court in New York City against an American who is the biggest, most powerful force to ever play women's tennis? How is it logical that she's 14th and Serena, winner of both the Bank of the West Classic in LA and the Toronto Masters this summer, is 28th?
I have Mirza upsetting Peer to soften up Ivanovic's road. I couldn't be more happy for Ana that she's climbed back in to the top 20. She's worked so hard to rebuild her career since she wilted in the lights of the paparazzi after her bombastic 2007 French Open victory. She fell completely off the map, getting the yips with her serve on many occasions but now she's putting together one solid tournament after another, save a second round slip to Petrova in Cincinnati. I'm not sure she's totally conquered the demons but she's made significant progress, as evidenced by her being able to take Vera Zvonareva to the wire a couple of weeks ago.
I think Pavlyuchenko and Jankovic's careers are going different directions and that match will showcase it. Erakovic is my random upset pick - she stuns Schiavone in round 2 because I'd fancy my chances against Schiavone on a fast court and I can't remember the last time I picked up a tennis racket. Safarova's like Pavlyuchenkova in that I've liked her for a while and Kvitova's due for an early slam exit. Radwanska is, too and Cirstea's a sleeper who takes out 09 semifinalist Yanina Wickmayer in round 1. Goerges is a cute young Brit I like who beat Jankovic and pushed Serena in Toronto and Razzano takes out Peng. The clock will strike midnight on Oudin this time. Kirilenko shockingly beats Bartoli with some ease, indicating she may be ready to make noise. Stosur handles Petrova and my Serena/Cibulkova point from above goes for Venus as well.
And then my shocker of the tournament. Laura Robson is just 17 but she's being hyped as one of the best British women's tennis players in generations. She's obviously got the talent being on the main tour at this young age and she's been pro for a couple years now. This is a pure shot in the dark but you just never know with Zvonareva and for some weird reason, I think she's in line for a major choke, even by her standards. Some shocking things are going to happen in this draw - parity's the name of the game right now on the WTA. This will be way wrong but what's right probably won't be all that predictable anyways.
Round of 16: Wozniacki over Kuznetsova, Li over Zheng, Serena over Ivanovic, Pavlyuchenkova over Erakovic, Safarova over Cirstea, Sharapova over Goerges, Kirilenko over Stosur, Venus over Robson
Could be a coming of age victory for Caroline if she can pull it off. I think she does, but moreso because Kuznetsova's starting to fade and I think she breaks down in a third set here. Li bests Zheng in the all-Chinese affair. Ivanovic's still far too fragile to take down Serena. Pavluychenkova and Safarova take advantage of broken brackets while Sharapova makes Goerges look overmatched in what could be another easy-on-the-eyes affair. Speaking easy-on-the-eyes, Kirilenko keeps her roll going as she shocks Stosur, who has been poor at slams and streaky overall this year. Venus can name her score against Robson.
Quarterfinals: Li over Wozniacki, Serena over Pavlyuchenkova, Sharapova over Safarova, Kirilenko over Venus
I'd LOVE to take Caroline here...but I can't. She's 0/2 against Li in the second week of hard court slams, although both losses were at the Australian (this year's semis, last year's quarters.) Still, I think Li's got a mental edge on her - which means everything in women's tennis. Serena and Sharapova breeze...but Venus doesn't as Kirilenko continues her fantastic run by giving me my new upset of the tournament. Lots of girls, many of them at least somewhat unexpected, have been having breakthrough runs this deep in slams over the past year or two. Yeah, most of them aren't beating a Williams sister en route but I think Kirilenko's next in line. She'll get hot after she beats Bartoli. Gut (and erotic) feeling.
Semifinals: Serena over Li, Sharapova over Kirilenko
Serena wins in a war as Li is a terrific player punching at her weight. Sharapova wins in a rout as Kirilenko is a streaky one punching above her's.
Final: Sharapova over Serena
...and that's what makes the difference in the final. Sharapova pulls off the mild upset in a classic three setter. I think she really cranks up her form in this tournament aided by a soft draw with no top 15 seed in my projected path for her. Serena, meanwhile, has to deal with Azarenka in round 3, Ivanovic in round 4 and then Li in the semis. She runs out of gas and breaks down enough for Maria to get her second U.S. Open.
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