Wednesday, November 19, 2014

College Basketball Picks - November 19

.500 yesterday.  Sometimes maybe I'll show my work in calculating the totals and add in some comments by updating the previous day's post.  I felt like doing that today after all of the strange, intriguing things that happened throughout the Marathon yesterday so yesterday's post is updated with my comments today in italics.

Wright State +6 @ Bowling Green.  Beating the crap out of Drake - who is awful - may not mean anything whereas a win over Belmont is probably going to mean *something* for the rest of the year.  Does bringing back four starters mean a hell of a lot when you were THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY SIXTH in adjusted offense last year?  This will be ugly one way or the other.

Evansville -5 @ Miami (Ohio.)  Miami (Ohio) only beat Southern Utah by 13.  This likely means: they are not good.  Purple Aces were dead last (well, 349th) in experience last year but there's talent there.  Keep an eye on them.

Western Michigan +2 @ Oakland.  I COMPLETELY forgot Western Michigan played in the tournament last year.  In fact, that's now 3 20+ win seasons in the last 4 and there's a LOT of young talent returning this year.  They'll be right there in the MAC.

Creighton +5.5 v. Oklahoma.  That's definitely in to "too many points" territory.  It's really damn hard to win at Qwest and this is likely going to be an offense heavy game, which is how Creighton loves playing at Qwest.  After North Dakota State took down OU in the tournament, Creighton's definitely going to believe they should too.

Wisconsin -15 v. Green Bay.  On paper that's a fair line but the Badgers are gonna be fully focused after almost losing in Green Bay last winter.

Wake Forest +13.5 @ Arkansas.  Oh god.  I guess this is a "they'll play hard for Danny Manning" pick as well as some apprehension about Arkansas.  Maybe I'm just back to liking Wake Forest now that Bzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz isn't there anymore.

Utah State -2.5 v. Santa Clara.  What?  This is a handout special from Vegas.

Arizona -15.5 v. UC Irvine.  I like both teams.  I'm more confident in my liking of Arizona.

San Jose State +1.5 v. Pepperdine.  Seems like an underdog home team win spot.

Gonzaga -22.5 v. Saint Joseph's.  That's a high number but I mean....are YOU picking against the Zags right now?

Furman -2.5 v. Appalachian State.  Appalachian State's badness in basketball seems underrated.

Cleveland State -14 v. Jacksonville State.  Jacksonville State's badness in basketball was already wrongly underrated by me.

Cincinnati -10.5 v. Morehead State.  This could be really ugly making Morehead a popular play (55%) but it's almost always tough for low major programs to retool after a coach took them to dizzying heights like Donnie Tyndall did for the Eagles.  It's still really difficult to go to Shoemaker.

St. Bonaventure -4 v. Siena.  More apprehension on the Saints than anything.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee -13 v. IUPUI.  This too is really off.  76% of the money on the Panthers and for good reason.

Oral Roberts +6 @ Missouri.  I'm just not taking a team I like to make fun of over a team I like right now.

Austin Peay -3 @ Samford.  I think we all want Peay to be good again.

CS Northridge -15.5 v. Montana State.  Montana State could very well be a bottom 10 team in Division 1.

New Mexico State -12 v. Northern Colorado.  Tad Boyle stopped through town for a few years.  Those were really fun years and all but they're just another mediocre low major program now.

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