Saturday, January 3, 2015

College Basketball Picks - January 3, 2015

A mediocre, below average closeout to 2014.  Fitting.  We'll take our cracks in a new year and hope things go better.  Bonus picks are the Panthers, Steelers, Colts and Lions.  Yes I stupidly think the Lions can win in Dallas.  Let's just move on.

Ohio State -8 v. Illinois.  Both a fade on the Illini and a bounceback game for the Bucks.  And campus will be buzzing!
Buckeyes struggled early before they and D'Angelo Russell really got it rolling.  1-0.

Rutgers +2 v. Penn State.  This is TOO much of a trap.  DJ Newbill is a good basketball player.  Penn State is not a good basketball team.
YEP.  2-0.

Maryland -4.5 v. Minnesota.  Another downright insulting line for my team.
Can't believe we'll be in the top 10 on Monday.  3-0.

N.C. State -3.5 v. Pitt.  I REALLY don't wanna take NC State here....but Pitt.
Impressive win for the Pack.  4-0.

Syracuse -11 @ Virginia Tech.  I'm just gonna check this now.  Virginia Tech gets home shots at Florida State and BC plus dumb teams like Pitt and GT.  So the 0-18 dream is very much alive for now but it's probably not happening :(
Oh dear Jesus.  Just a nightmarish second half for the Cuse from many different angles.  This continues to be a very, very flawed basketball team.  4-1.

Oklahoma State -7.5 v. Kansas State.  I'm tired of giving in to dumb urges to take Kansas State.

Villanova -6 @ Seton Hall.  The final doesn't show it but the Pirates got a real fight from St. John's on New Year's Eve.  They're probably a bit drained from that still while Nova got to coast against Butler.  This is where no Whitehead will pop them (I'm sorry.)
Pirates prevail in OT.  Sterling Gibbs was fantastic.  A great PG can be such a huge advantage over many other teams in college basketball.  Would take a massive collapse for the Hall to miss the tournament I'd think.  5-2

Dayton -13 v. Duquesne.  Dayton at home against a bad team.  In fact, this is a suspiciously low number.
Flyers really hitting their stride as A10 play starts.  6-2.

William & Mary -9.5 v. Charleston.  I'm tired of giving in to dumb urges to take Charleston.
Wow.  7-2.

George Washington -5 @ Saint Joseph's.  An early contender for most bizarre line of the year!  Colonials look really great and can really defend and Saint Joes can't shoot.
A missed free throw at the end fails to push this.  7-3.

Xavier -10 @ DePaul.  DePaul just had a nice performance and a good win!  Time for an inevitable blowout.  Plus X offense looks humming again.  I never stopped believing!
Oh boy.  Oh that's not good for the X.  Though it's looking like the trip to Rosemont won't be a free space for Big East opponents like previously.  7-4.

Northeastern -7.5 @ Delaware.  ANOTHER really suspicious line, this is the conference favorite giving just a touchdown and a half to the league doormat who was winless until like a week ago.
Delaware still sucks.  8-4.

Connecticut +10 @ Florida.  I don't think either's good enough to call 10 points better than the other.
Great win for the Huskies.  Could be a real missed chance for the Gators, who would be cutting it VERY close if they scuffle around too much in SEC play.  9-4.

Baylor +7 @ Oklahoma.  Man, the Bears have really grown on me.  That Illinois loss in Vegas is gonna look weirder and weirder I think.  They could very well steal this, it could be close and we know how Oklahoma is in close games.
Blah.  Baylor on the road.  And the Sooners continue to be a rock at home.  9-5.

Hofstra -4.5 @ UNC Wilmington.  It's a two-fer of crazy CAA lines!
Struggled early, came back to cover convincingly.  10-5.

Marquette -2 v. Providence.  The performance will surely be better than at DePaul and this is the Friars first time outside the Northeast since they tried to play Bennettball at Kentucky and failed miserably on November 30.
Predictable.  11-5.

Boise State -9 v. Utah State.  Aggies aren't even that great at the Spectrum this year.
Oof.  Utah State led this most of the way then hit a 3 at the buzzer to win it.  Broncos won't be on the next Bubble Watch.  11-6.

Georgia State -14 v. Arkansas Little Rock.  If they cover this, particularly if it's by multiple possessions, I might take them in every Sun Belt game.
One point miss.  11-7.

Vanderbilt -5.5 v. Yale.  Yeah the Yale thing was cute and all but it's over now.

Texas -8 @ Texas Tech.  This might be the wackiest power 5 line of the day.  Tech might not get to 50 and might very well not get to 40 either.
One point cover!  12-8.

Michigan +5.5 @ Purdue.  Think they turned a corner with the Illinois comeback.  The Boilers had a comeback of their own against Minnesota but I still don't totally trust them.
OH DEAR.  Wolverines led 33-25 at the half.....then scored 8 points in the next 17 minutes.  12-9.

Notre Dame -12 v. Georgia Tech.  Not picking against that offense at Joyce right now, especially not against a shaky team like GT.
Double OT part 2!  Jerian Grant kneebagged someone.  12-10.

Saint Louis +7.5 v. Rhode Island.  The Billikens have been a dumpster fire so this is a total fade of URI.
Tied at the half, Billikens lose by 12.  12-11.

Buffalo -11 v. Cornell.  Pretty sure that Ryan Wittman class that Steve Donahoe pulled in is going to be the zenith of Cornell basketball forever and always.
2 point Buffalo lead at the half, win by 19.  13-11.

SMU -1 @ Cincinnati.  The 11 AM tip isn't a bad one with two of the American contenders hooking up early.  The favorite is the one with its coach so I'll take them.
Good win for the Bearcats!  Whichever of these two doesn't get the auto (or both if UConn/Temple does) will be sniffing around the bubble I'm sure.  13-12.

James Madison -4 v. Towson.  Generous.
Yep.  14-12.

St. John's -3.5 v. Butler.  That wasn't a great performance by the Bulldogs at The Pavilion on Wednesday.  The Johnnies got blown away late but like I said before fought Seton Hall hard.  They're the better team and at home.
Oh no, an 0-2 Big East start for the Johnnies and Nova comes in next.  Still think this is a tourney team and they have plenty of time to turn it around but a reality check has certainly been given and they have much work to do.  14-13.

Memphis -12 v. Tulane.  Feels like every year Tulane's a paper tiger who wins a bunch of games against crap in nonconference before being awful in conference play.  Plus Tigers are hitting their stride.
I.....whatever.  14-14.

Missouri State -7.5 v. Drake.  Probably a turd performance on the road coming from Drake after the near miss at home against Wichita.
Spot on.  15-14.

Boston College +23 @ Duke.  I could actually see Olivier Hanlan getting hot from 3 and the Golden Eagles leading for a the first half.
BC led at no point....and pushed.  15-14-1.

Massachusetts -7.5 v. St. Bonaventure.  Might have written the Minutemen off a little early but I'm still not sure they make it out of the A10 midsection.
Yeah, no I didn't.  15-15.

TCU +2 v. West Virginia.  Why the hell not?  LET'S KEEP THE UNBEATEN SEASON GOING.
A really poor second half performance and the first loss has been eaten.  An NCAA tournament team has to bounce back and win at K-State this year.  15-16.

Elon +5.5 @ Drexel.  Uhh why should Drexel be favored by this much?
A question that will forever remain unanswered.  16-16.

Saint Mary's -9 @ Loyola Marymount.  Friendly reminder that Loyola Marymount barely got to 40 in an overtime game with Nebraska.

Georgetown -8.5 v. Creighton.  Bluejays are another team I've completely faded at this point.  Plus it'll be bounceback time for the Hoyas.
Yeap.  17-17.

Richmond +7 @ Davidson.  Alright that's WAY too many points.
Another thoroughly impressive performance from the Wildcats, who may be starting to enter the CAA conversation.  17-18.

Nevada -1 v. Air Force.  I've been hitting on a lot of Nevada picks!
Keep it coming.  18-18.

George Mason +1 v. La Salle.  I'd actually have Mason as slight favorites here.
Indeed!  19-18

Georgia Southern -4 v. Texas State.  I've been hitting on a lot of Georgia Southern picks!
40-36?!?!  At least they won though.  19-18-3.

Oregon -9.5 v. Oregon State.  Ooh, an early Civil War.  Think there's a real gulf in quality although that hasn't stopped the Beavers before.
Solid 12 point win for the Ducks.  20-18.

North Carolina -8 @ Clemson.  This is a MAJOR trap for the Heels and it's easy to see their red hot offense coming to a slog against Brownellball.....but I mean, I can't take Clemson.  Seriously?
Yeah.  Yeah.  A complete and utter whoopin from start to finish.  Just a completely nutty line that I assume bookies everywhere lost a ton on because everyone was rightfully on UNC.  The Heels are looking like they might be more of a challenge to Duke and Virginia than Louisville.  They certainly are a lot better at offense than the Cards.  21-18.

Virginia -7.5 @ Miami (FL.)  They didn't even get to 50 against Eastern Kentucky.  Also, they lost that game by 28.  And it was at home.  I'm not sure if I've mentioned that before.
Yet another double shot.  Just an incredible finish and then two overtimes of battle.  Hoos prove their credentials as a national title level squad, Canes prove they can play with the best on their day.  21-19.

East Carolina +4 @ South Florida.  Even if they win this I'm probably still fading South Florida almost always.
Theory to be tested.  21-20.

Pepperdine -7.5 v. Pacific.  Well Pacific's been awful since joining the WCC.

Arkansas State -8.5 v. Appalachian State.  I have to say I'm interested to see what they can do in Sun Belt play after whooping up Mississippi State at the Hump.
So they go and lose to Appy State.  Well, the Mountaineers won at Virginia Tech.  What can THEY do?!  (nothing.)  22-21.

New Mexico PK v. Colorado State.  The Rams have been begging to be tagged for a while and this will be it.
This was too obvious.  Not good for CSU that it wasn't even close.  Makes you think they might have a lot of struggles at different places in the Mountain West.  23-21.

Southern Illinois +1.5 @ Bradley.  Holy jeez there are a lot of games.  I keep looking at the list and there's just a mountain left to pick but I'm starting to get there.
LMFAO me for ever thinking SIU might be remotely close to back.  23-22.

Louisiana Tech -10 @ Southern Miss.  *looks again* Oh man I still got a bit of a ways to go.

South Alabama +9 @ UT Arlington.  They gotta win one against a D1 opponent eventually!  Why not now?

UL Lafayette -12.5 v. Troy.  Their offense should overwhelm the bad teams in the Sun Belt.

Gonzaga -11.5 @ Portland.  Revenge game after the Pilots won this last year.
They cruised throughout.  26-23.

Iowa State -6 v. South Carolina (Brooklyn.)  Boy the Barclays Center just keeps hosting games, doesn't it?  Hey why not, whatever gets the Nets outta there.
Oh dear.  And again the Cyclones are called in to question.  That's two really poor performances in neutral site games, that can't be encouraging for March.  Very interested to see what they do in Big 12 play now.  As for the Cocks, this vaults them to the top of the SEC bubble.  This might be Frank Martin's year.  Get hype.  26-24.

San Diego -3.5 @ Santa Clara.  Yeah Santa Clara didn't do so well last time out against BYU.
Oh San Diego away from the Slim Gym.  26-25.

Wyoming -19 @ San Jose State.  Yeah San Jose State didn't do so well any time out against whoever.
Oh my word they actually almost lost it.  26-26.

San Diego State -8 @ Fresno State.  Bulldogs gonna have problems scoring.
Oh my word they actually DID lost it.  26-27.

BYU -5 @ San Francisco.  Only reason this isn't a TOTAL gift is the Cougs can be VERY spotty on the road.
Oh look a Western mid major who actually knows what it's doing on the road!  27-27.

The Citadel +9 @ Western Carolina.  COME ON CHUCK DRIESELL.
Point cover!  28-27.

Austin Peay +18 @ Mississippi.  I don't care how little sense it makes, I am taking Austin Peay against Mississippi and you can't stop me.
Super stupid but whatever.  28-28.

Wofford -11 @ Samford.  A few points too low because the Terriers have been blown out a lot lately.
Just embarrassing that they almost lost.  28-29.

Eastern Illinois -7.5 v. Jacksonville State.  Alabama to, well, Eastern Illinois is a long damn trip.
9 point win in OT!  29-29.

Montana State +1 v. Northern Colorado.  They might - MIGHT - not be as bad as we all assume when Kentucky just embarrassed them.
Yeah, yeah they are.  29-30.

Eastern Washington -16 v. Idaho State.  A few points too low because....well, I don't know, the bookmakers should know that the Bengals are really, really bad.
Not a great look only winning by 8.  29-31.

Mercer -3.5 @ UNC Greensboro.  UNC Greensboro comes up as Greensboro College on Google Maps which makes it sound like a Division 3 school and they're probably about Division 3 quality.
Yeah this line was way off.  30-31.

Chattanooga -9.5 v. Furman.  How many more?

Murray State -5 @ Morehead State.  The Kentucky Derby (not that one - "derby" is "local rivalry") went to double OT at Morehead last year but Murray's hitting its stride.

Tennessee Tech +1.5 @ SIU Edwardsville.  They've already won 8 games, they can win at SIU Edwardsville!, they definitely can't.  32-32.

SE Missouri State -6.5 @ Tennessee State.  Dickey Nutt not even giving a touchdown at a psuedo SWAC school?  Sure!

Montana -8.5 v. North Dakota.  Oh hey they'll be a Big Sky contender after everyone thought they'd fall off *yawn*

Southern Utah +12 @ Sacramento State.  And Sac State will suck after everyone thought they might be good.

Weber State +3.5 @ Idaho.  I'm sorry, is this a misprint?
35-33....but they did lose this game.  This Weber team isn't making the tournament unless it gets randomly hot for 3 games in March.  35-33.

Portland State -1 v. Northern Arizona.  Did the Vikings go all the way to Portland?  Whatever, it's a great name that should be used more.
Dumb pick.  35-34.

Arkansas -24.5 v. Utah Valley.  Utah Valley was the KING in the Great West for a while there!
Arkansas against any awful team at home is a lock.  36-34.

Missouri -9.5 v. Lipscomb.  Like the football team, I'm expecting them to get better as we get more in to conference season (even though this is a nonconference game.)
Bison were a real thorn in the side for a while but the Tigers finally got it together.  37-34.

LSU -24.5 v. Savannah State.  Always a good chance Savannah State sets some sort of offensive futility record in one of these games.

New Mexico State -4 v. UC Irvine.  One of the few non-Kentucky teams who can match N'diaye (if he plays.)

No comments:

Post a Comment