Monday, January 5, 2015

College Basketball Picks - Monday, January 5

A game over .500 in my Saturday picks and 2-2 in my Wild Card weekend picks.  I'm thoroughly average.

Georgia State -13.5 v. Texas State
The Bobcats pulled the upset in double OT!  They're now 8-4, 2-1 in Sun Belt play and definitely a threat going forward.  This was 19-17 at the half, 40-38 in the second half and then 20-17 in ten minutes of overtime.  Odd ebb and flow.  0-1.

Towson -2.5 v. Elon
Weather permitting I'll be in Towson to see the Tigers on Thursday.  Not the most impressive performance here but they covered and looked a hell of a lot better than their Thursday opponent, whom I'll get to later. 1-1.

Indiana +8.5 @ Michigan State
This just pisses me off.  There was no logical reason to take Michigan State, given how both teams had performed up until yesterday, other than "they'll get it together and Indiana's gonna take a dump on the road!"  Well, guess what happened.  1-2.

West Virginia -6 @ Texas Tech
A bit of a test for the Mountaineers but they passed relatively easily.  Tech showed enough fight that it's probably going to sting someone making the long trek to Lubbock but luckily the Mountaineers were already in the state, having won at TCU on Saturday.  2-2.

North Carolina -8 v. Notre Dame
Great game.  Irish led the whole way but the Heels made a run late.  Unfortunately they were down at the end and called a timeout to run one last play, which was inbounding to a triple teamed Marcus Paige on the sideline.  Not Roy's finest moment.  As for ND, their offense has gotten all the plaudits but it was their defense that really impressed me down the stretch and they're now 15-1.  Fifteen and one!  2-3.

Hofstra -15.5 v. Delaware
Point and a half miss as the Pride move to a somewhat uninspiring 2-0 in CAA play.  2-4.

Northeastern -11 v. UNC Wilmington
Oh dear.  If the Huskies hadn't already ceded their CAA favorite label, they have now.  An ugly loss to a team that was barely inside the top 250 in KenPom (now it's barely outside the top 200) that may keep them from the regular season title.  2-5.

William & Mary -6 @ Drexel
Drexel.   Oh Drexel.  What happened to you?  This used to be a yearly contender or at least a FACTOR in the CAA with its bruising coach and defensive style.  It's now 2-11 after a 73-47 home loss to the Tribe, your new conference favorite.  This would be the most embarrassing performance if it hadn't already lost at home to THE UNIVERSITY OF THE SCIENCES.  I can only imagine what I'm gonna see out of them on Thursday.  3-5.

James Madison +3.5 @ Charleston
Straight up win for the Dukes, who join more-fancied Hofstra and W&M as the only 2-0 teams in CAA play.  They host the preseason conference favorites (Northeastern) on Thursday before traveling to Williamsburg to play the current favorites (W&M) on Saturday.  Big week for them.  4-5.

UL Lafayette -4 @ Appalachian State
This line made no sense yesterday and it still doesn't make sense today.  5-5.

Arkansas State +2 @ UL Monroe
So I guess Louisiana Monroe could beat the crap out of Mississippi State too? (gonna be tempting to use that joke every time someone beats the Red Wolves or McNeese State in their respective conferences.)  5-6.

Green Bay -10.5 v. Wright State
Phoenix have been a bit all over the place but they dominated here and remain the Horizon favorites with only Valpo in the rearview.  6-6.

Arkansas Little Rock -9 v. South Alabama
South Alabama beat a D1 school!  I was gonna take them here and wussed out.  6-7.

Texas Arlington -4 @ Troy
Whatever.  6-8.

Iowa -10 v. Nebraska
Point cover.  7-8.

Texas -6 v. Oklahoma
Yeah so this was a statement blowout for the Sooners, who may have replaced their opponents in the Big 12 shortlist of title contenders along with Iowa State and Kansas.  Their weakness last year was defense and this year it looks like a strength.  A trip to Morgantown is wrapped around two of the easier home games in conference play (K-State and OK-State although the latter is Bedlam) so a 4-0 start is possible before heading in to the Phog on Big Monday in two weeks.  7-9.

Mercer -2.5 @ VMI
Why is VMI always so bad?  I thought military guys liked to run and were really good at it!  8-9.

Wofford -1 @ Chattanooga
A bumpy ride for the Terriers but Karl Cochran's 33 got them there in the end.  9-9.

UNC Greensboro -3 v. The Citadel

Fairfield +1.5 v. Rider
Rider might be better than I thought!  They've won 7-8 and are a shocking 3-1 in MAAC play with the lone loss at Iona.  Hmmmmmm....  9-11.

Western Carolina -8 v. Furman
Furman's one of those schools I'm not sure will ever be any good at basketball.  10-11.

East Tennessee State -5.5 @ Samford
Samford's 0-4 in conference but the last two were by 3 at home to Wofford over the weekend and now a 2 point loss here.  Tough luck for Scott Padgett.  Hopefully the Kentucky legend can get things together.  10-12.

Texas Southern -2.5 @ Southern
This had a wild finish.  Texas Southern was holding the ball at midcourt for the last shot of regulation in a tie game, went with under 10 seconds to go, got stripped at the 3 point line with 5 seconds to go so Southern had a breakaway layup for the win....that got SWATTED off the backboard by the other guard tracking back, then Chris Thomas corralled the rebound and got fouled with just under a second to go.  He hit the first, then missed the second on purpose.  Southern timeout.  They heave it deep AND THE GUY GETS THE WILD 3 OFF AND MAKES IT....BUT AFTER THE BUZZER.  One point win for the Tigers.  No cover for me but a whole lot of entertainment.  10-13.

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